ACONA conference Reykjavík 2025 - Negotiating the New Frontier: Technology and Conflict in a Changing Geopolitical Order

ACONA conference in Reykjavík 2025

Negotiating the New Frontier: Technology and Conflict in a Changing Geopolitical Order

(Speech by Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Iceland)

Ladies and gentlemen,

It is a pleasure to be with you here at this fourth ACONA Conference in Reykjavík.

Let me start by addressing the ACONA fellows of this year:

I hope that you have enjoyed the 12-month long ACONA program, where you have had the opportunity to learn and engage with other professionals in the field of arms control and enhance your skills.

You are the next generation of arms control negotiators. Some of you may go on to engage in high-level negotiations, to shape policy or to advise decision-makers. It is encouraging to see such a vibrant group of experts in the field who are ready to dedicate their professional lives to this important cause.

And even though I understand that you have been busy discussing the next solutions to global arms control structures and nuclear non-proliferation, I also hope that you have had the opportunity to walk around and explore the city in the warm, sunny weather we have been enjoying in the past week – quite unusual for Reykjavík in May!

For Iceland, an island situated in the middle of the North Atlantic, the multi-faceted challenges in arms control and non-proliferation may seem distant. To some people, this agenda might even sound outdated, like a relic of the Cold War.

However, the importance of arms control negotiations, disarmament, non-proliferation, confidence-building measures and verification mechanisms has not diminished over the years. Arms control isn't obsolete. On the contrary – it is perhaps more relevant and urgent now than at any time in recent history.

The world is facing a new generation of threats, more complex and more dangerous. The definitions are expanding. The players are multiplying. The boundaries between military and civilian technologies are blurring. From hypersonic weapons to dual-use satellites, from AI-enabled weapons systems to drones — our traditional frameworks are at risk of being left behind if we do not make sure to keep up with the pace.

While we welcome the benefits of technological advances, we must be mindful that they can also bring risks. When it comes to the application of artificial intelligence in the military domain, safeguards must be in place to ensure full human control over the use of force. The decision of life and death must never be entrusted to an autonomous weapons system. Ensuring human responsibility and accountability is imperative.

The traditional arms control agenda that focused on treaties, numbers, and strategic delivery systems is still important. But with changes in technology, including an increase in cyber capabilities that can disable strategic warning systems without even crossing a border, we must be more alert and increase our focus on countering these challenges.

Today, we are witnessing the structures that were designed with the purpose of preventing conflict being challenged and undermined. We see the escalation of violence, rising nationalism and brutal disregard for international rules and norms.

The continuation of Russia’s unlawful war of aggression against Ukraine and the Kremlin‘s reckless rhetoric about using tactical nuclear weapons is shameful. The destabilizing developments in the Middle East, including the continued atrocities in Gaza and the proliferation of illicit arms in the region, undermine any peace efforts.

Ballistic missile testing in North Korea and the nuclear programme in Iran continue to challenge the global non-proliferation regime and remain a grave concern. The same goes for the widespread use and proliferation of small arms and light weapons across Sudan and Yemen that fuel atrocities. Small arms and light weapons have killed more people every year than nuclear, chemical and biological weapons combined.

Keep in mind that we are not only facing the dangers of more weapons – we are now confronted with the possibility that the very frameworks we designed to contain and monitor those weapons might become dismantled.

However important the non-proliferation, elimination, disarmament and monitoring part of arms control is, it is not the only important part. Yes, arms control is not only about limiting the tools of war. As you have also learned through ACONA, arms control is also about paving the way for dialogue, negotiating frameworks to increase predictability, and building trust - even when trust seems like an impossible thing to achieve - which makes it even more important.

Yes, the field has changed but the core remains: Creating frameworks for the benefit of peace through multilateral and bilateral agreements.

You don’t make peace with your friends. You make peace with your enemies

Ladies and gentlemen,

Allow me to be cautiously optimistic. The way the 20th century unfolded gave us many occasions to fear the worst, yet we also witnessed numerous successes. Diplomacy worked. Arms races were slowed and reversed. When tensions between superpowers were at their most dangerous it was not just military might but negotiation and diplomacy that averted disaster. This is important to keep in mind, especially as we prepare to commemorate the lessons from the Reykjavik Summit in 1986 next year. When the Non-Proliferation Treaty came into force, it helped limit the spread of nuclear weapons and prevent their proliferation – a reality that many would not have believed to be possible.

With the adoption of the Chemical Weapons Convention and the subsequent establishment of a global verification regime, the OPCW, thousands of chemical munitions have been destroyed – not by force but by a negotiated agreement. And let us not forget that in 1987, during the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union eliminated an entire class of nuclear weapons under the INF treaty.

These successes are a reminder that arms control is not just possible but achievable. We now have new technologies that offer new ways to verify implementation of agreements and monitor weapons. Let us also keep in mind the tangible benefits, that every negotiated success is a representation of lives saved, and crises averted.

As we navigate through the current global security landscape, we may continue to confront setbacks, irresponsible rhetoric and harmful intensions, but let us remember that every conversation has the potential to reshape our future - a future where distrust can be dismantled and our security frameworks can be restored and maintained.

Ladies and gentlemen,

Arms control is not about the past. It is about the future. It is about the kind of future we want to foster. A future where disputes are resolved through diplomacy, where weapons are regulated and agreements are respected. Let us continue to build upon the knowledge that we have gathered through years of engaging in difficult negotiations, under stressful circumstances when the threat of nuclear war was imminent; let us continue to strengthen the institutions and frameworks that were designed to protect us, and work together to meet challenges that rise from new and emerging technologies.

Finally,

Let me congratulate all of you who are graduating from the ACONA program. Your dedication to the field is important for future generations, who depend on us to make responsible decisions today.

Thank you.